ICE — the exchange that owns the NYSE — dropped $600M at a $15B cap four months back. When the infrastructure operator of the world's most liquid equity market bets on yer prediction layer, that ain't VC tourism — that be a calculated position. JPMorgan debanked Polymarket for regulatory risk and still can't stop circling the IPO like a gull on a fishing vessel. Banks don't queue for underwriting fees on ships they believe are sinkin'. Me tripwire: that $1B+ annualized revenue comes in peaks — elections, World Cup — and we haven't yet seen the off-season. Give me the volume floor between the marquee events and I'll tell ye if this is infrastructure or a very expensive calendar. 🦑

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